Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 25.912647 29.454564 33.266298 37.668932 42.609389 47.977687 54.248179
2024-12-15 20.499420 25.278087 30.811914 37.676105 45.943419 55.560238 67.574757
2024-12-22 17.543791 22.798017 29.175070 37.451929 47.874872 60.526330 77.004944
2024-12-29 15.512925 21.111849 28.193085 37.754519 50.269179 66.026824 87.297677
2025-01-05 14.305382 20.256412 28.053164 38.941199 53.666055 72.788300 99.386031
2025-01-12 12.761707 18.755814 26.872334 38.567807 54.871266 76.655321 107.800872
2025-01-19 10.970872 16.711543 24.734685 36.646857 53.737670 77.197805 111.621514
2025-01-26 10.297354 16.186719 24.648908 37.545372 56.517337 83.174504 123.174734
2025-02-02 9.728577 15.751678 24.633891 38.504975 59.391891 89.382123 135.325442
2025-02-09 8.924965 14.878817 23.886592 38.294952 60.491256 93.041534 143.920865
2025-02-16 8.140240 13.961061 22.988732 37.766981 61.038134 95.862736 151.355595
2025-02-23 7.603613 13.392159 22.580467 37.949738 62.650088 100.313425 161.407452
2025-03-02 7.183530 12.993036 22.430398 38.558497 65.007406 106.091469 173.913555
2025-03-09 6.726958 12.493212 22.077842 38.808989 66.799211 111.077429 185.441451
2025-03-16 6.214619 11.847988 21.426624 38.500696 67.629401 114.538968 194.658623
2025-03-23 5.863653 11.457704 21.174201 38.836349 69.523875 119.771999 206.944538
2025-03-30 5.685027 11.364666 21.425601 40.046304 72.946415 127.643469 223.897873
2025-04-06 5.273669 10.801748 20.801247 39.665702 73.593715 130.913760 233.312900
2025-04-13 4.670463 9.820185 19.347251 37.692971 71.320607 129.115600 234.029357
2025-04-20 4.517143 9.703881 19.477550 38.615597 74.241472 136.328248 250.502827
2025-04-27 4.380806 9.609478 19.639617 39.600540 77.316610 143.933045 267.974457
2025-05-04 4.105239 9.208085 19.184971 39.384984 78.161841 147.631070 278.700685
2025-05-11 3.813479 8.748229 18.583087 38.843015 78.356424 150.156497 287.416509